HomeNJ Sports Betting NewsNew York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Preview and Prediction

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Preview and Prediction

One of the oldest rivalries in MLB history renews this weekend when the New York Yankees look to improve upon their lifetime mark of 1235-1015 when they meet the Boston Red Sox at historic Fenway Park.

Image: IMAGO / ZUMA Wire

Domingo German (4-3, 3.49) is expected to make the start for the Yankees. Righty Tanner Houck (3-6, 5.23) is the Red Sox probable starter for Friday’s tilt.

New York Struggling Without Judge in Lineup

New York (39-30) is nine games behind American League East division leader Tampa Bay Rays and has played .500 ball over its last 10 games. MVP candidate Aaron Judge is on the IL, and the Yankees have scored 33 runs during his 10-game absence. The Bronx Bombers split their two-game Subway Series with the New York Mets, including a 4-3 Wednesday defeat.

DH Willie Calhoun and 2B Gleyber Torres have each cracked a pair of home runs over the past seven days, while OF Giancarlo Stanton is batting .111 with one bomb and an RBI over 18 at-bats.

German has been dynamite over his past five starts, allowing seven runs over 27.2 frames of work. The Yankees righty has had some trouble pitching away from Yankee Stadium, posting a 4.20 ERA with an xFIP over 0.50 runs higher, meaning some regression could be in store for the Yankees hurler.

Boston Bats Heating Up

Boston is last in the AL East standings, and they’ve played .400 ball over their last 10 games. Two of those victories came at Yankee Stadium last weekend, but Boston returned home and dropped two of three to the Colorado Rockies. Shortstop Trevor Story has missed the entire season and is expected to return sometime in August.

DH Justin Turner has been red hot, cracking 10 hits with a home run and four RBI over his past 27 at-bats. OF Alex Verdugo is also thumping with nine hits over his previous 26 at-bats, and 3B Rafael Devers has four homers and six RBI over his 23 at-bats.

Houck is coming off a great start at Yankee Stadium, allowing two earned runs over six frames but previous to this start yielded 13 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. Houck has struggled pitching at Fenway this season-the Red Sox righty offers a 6.20 ERA with 22 earned runs and five bombs allowed over 32 innings. The encouraging sign is his home xFIP is nearly three runs lower than his ERA, suggesting some positive regression might be in store.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Best Bet: Red Sox ML -105 DraftKings

Boston is a short underdog, and my best bet is Boston -105 at DraftKings.

Houck is a better pitcher than what his numbers say, and he should see enough positive regression to outperform his last solid outing against these same Yankees. Houck scattered three hits in his previous start but served up a pair of solo shots and took a 3-1 loss at Yankee Stadium.

New York has a below-average AL offense against right-handed pitching, and while the strikeout rate is one of the lowest in the AL, Houck is whiffing 9.5 per nine at home and might strike out more than the six Yankees he K’d in his last start.

The Bombers are missing Judge; Stanton has just returned from a lengthy stay on the IL and is in a horrible slump. New York isn’t scoring runs consistently, which should set Houck up nicely to get the win he should have gotten last weekend in the Bronx.

Finally, German has been steady as a rock since serving a 10-game suspension for using a foreign substance, but he’s up against some hot Boston bats, and I believe the Red Sox will get the best of the Yankees hurler and win this game. Best Bet: Red Sox ML -105 DraftKings

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