The Heat are -5.5 favorites with a 209.5 total when the two sides meet tonight at Kaseya Center. Tip-off time is set for 7:30 pm.
Knicks Back to the Wall
New York held serve at home and came away with a nine-point victory. The Knicks shot 49% from the floor and 38% from downtown. Jalen Brunson led the way with 38 points and he along with Quinton Grimes played the entire 48 minutes. RJ Barrett chipped in with 26 points and Julius Randle scored 24 to pace the Knicks.
The Knicks bench was outscored 42-8 and have been outscored by an average of 8.5 points per game during this series.
Despite the better Game 5 shooting from downtown, the Knicks are draining just 30% of their triple attempts and 44% from inside the arc during this series. Josh Hart played just nine minutes in Game 5 but he’s scored just six points over his last two games and he’ll need to find a way to contribute more than he has otherwise the Knicks season is finished.
Heat in the Driver Seat
Miami mounted a comeback but it wasn’t enough to wrap up the series. The Heat were cold from inside and outside the arc but did blow an early 10-point lead. Jimmy Butler had an off night, scoring 19 with seven assists and seven caroms to lead Miami. Bam Adebayo added 18 and Duncan Robinson came off the bench to score 17 in a losing cause.
The Miami bench continued to dominate New York–aside from Robinson, Caleb Martin scored 10 and Kyle Lowry chipped in with nine points along with five dimes.
Miami is averaging 11 turnovers per game in this series and has been the better shooting team from beyond the arc. New York has beaten Miami on the glass in all five games but Miami has shot 80% from the charity stripe and if this continues at home Friday night this series is over.
Phil’s Best Bet: Heat Under 208.5 -110
Miami should win this game but my best bet is for this contest to end Under 208.5.
Friday night is going to be a physical affair and let’s face it, neither of these teams are offensive juggernauts. Both teams have been mediocre shooting sides and New York is coming off a 19 turnover night.
New York has allowed the second-fewest points per game in the playoffs but Miami has locked down New York in both of their home games during this series. Miami has won both home games with timely triples and solid defense along with Butler heroics and I see this trend continuing Friday.
Finally, the Knicks bench has been putrid and Brunson and Grimes are both banged up and each played 48 minutes in a must-win home game. This is the road and the Knicks aren’t going to generate enough offense to outscore Miami and the Heat will sneak one out with this game ending Under the total. Phil’s Best Bet: Heat Under 208.5 -110 (FanDuel).
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