Super Wild Card weekend continues Sunday afternoon when the 9-7 New York Giants meet the 13-4 Minnesota Vikings and a rematch of their December 24, 2022 matchup. Minnesota won 27-24 in Minneapolis and a game with the highest Over/Under total on the board (48.5).
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Giants vs. Vikings Preview
New York surprised the critics by reaching the postseason with a 9-7 record, good for 3rd place in a tough NFC East. They’ve won two of their past five but have covered the spread in four of their previous five and 13-4 ATS during the regular season.
The Giants don’t have a great offense, but it’s efficient, and RB Saquan Barkley is coming off a fantastic season, rushing for 1312 yards and 10 TDs. Barkley also plays a role in the passing game, hauling in 57 passes for 338 yards.
Barkley has a terrific matchup against a bad Vikings rushing defense. Minnesota allows the 20th most rushing yards per contest, and they’ll have difficulty stopping the two-pronged rushing attack of Barkley and QB Daniel Jones. Jones is the 2nd leading rusher with 708 yards and seven TDs. These two will cause the Vikings all sorts of fits and keep the Giants in the game and the Vikings’ offense off the field.
Jones is an average passing QB with the 15th most passing yards and 21st in TD passes (15). WR Darius Slayton is his primary weapon, while WRs Richie James and Isaiah Hodgkins lead the team with four receiving TDs. The Vikings allow the most passing yards per game, and if Barkley and Jones can get things going with their feet, it will set up for Jones to have a big game Sunday.
Jones and the offense will need to come through because the Vikings’ offense boasts the 8th-best scoring offense in the NFL. Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is 4th in passing yards, and WR Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the game. RB Dalvin Cook rushed for his 4th consecutive 1000+ season, and TE T.J. Hockenson has played a considerable role since being acquired in a mid-season trade with Detroit.
Phil’s Best Bet
The Giants are +3.0 point underdogs and should cover the spread Sunday.
The Giants are a team that covers the spread. They are 13-4 this season ATS and 4-1 ATS over their last five. New York faces a lousy Minnesota defense allowing 148 points over their previous five contests. The Giants should dominate on the ground and let the clock roll behind Barkley and Jones.
Minnesota has many capable offensive players, but the offensive line is banged up and allowed 47 sacks. That forces Cousins into throwing earlier than he would like to, and one of two things happens—either the Vikings make a big play, or Cousins throws an interception. Cousins has thrown 14 interceptions this season and faces an opportunistic Giants defense averaging 2.5 sacks per game with more takeaways than giveaways.
Finally, the Giants cover, and the Vikings don’t. New York is 6-1 ATS as the away team against a Minnesota side with a 4-5 ATS mark at home. The Giants can score with the Vikings but are the better defensive side, and that should be enough for the New York Giants to cover the spread.
Best Giants vs. Vikings Prop Bets
This contest features the highest point total on the Super Wild Card Weekend slate, and we have several prop betting options.
Justin Jefferson Anytime Scorer +110 (FanDuel)
Jefferson is the best WR in the league and leads the Vikings with nine TDs. Jefferson has scored a TD in two of his last five, including a TD reception in their Week 16 home victory over this same Giants defense. New York allows 1.2 TD receptions per game, and we should expect the versatile WR to find the end zone at least once Sunday.
Daniel Jones Over 240.5 Passing Yards -114 (FanDuel)
Jones has thrown for over 300 yards twice this season, and once was against Minnesota. The Giants’ signal-caller has exceeded 240.5 passing yards twice this season, but the Vikings allow the most passing yards per game and are exploitable through the air. New York could be trailing in this game, and we should see Jones and the Giants’ passing game excel Sunday.
Richie James Over 4.5 receptions +116 (FanDuel)
+116 is a reasonable price (FanDuel) and a nice matchup for James against a lousy Vikings secondary. If Jones is having a big passing day, then James will be one of the reasons. James has hauled in five or more receptions five times this season and in three of his past four. The Giants’ WR is steady, and a very good prop bet for this matchup.
Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)
Cousins has exceeded this meager number in seven of his 17 games this season. The Vikings’ signal-caller is taking snaps behind a shaky offensive line. New York averages 2.4 sacks per game, and Sunday being a win-or-go-home scenario, look for Cousins to tuck the ball and run for his life and exceed this total.