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Miami Heat vs New York Knicks Game 5 Preview
The Knicks are -4 favorites with a 209.5 total when they welcome the Heat to Madison Square Garden tonight.
The Heat in general, and Jimmy Butler in particular, have dominated the Knicks in this series. They have a commanding 3-1 lead and the series would likely be over but Butler missed Game 2 with an ankle injury, the Heat lost by six at the Garden.
A near-triple double last night for Jimmy ☕️ pic.twitter.com/Z1lsj9Jqu3
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) May 9, 2023
Miami hasn’t shot the ball well numbers wise during this series, draining 42% from the field and just 31% from downtown but they’ve hit the big triple when they’ve needed it and have drained 80% of their attempts from the charity stripe.
Butler has dominated the Knicks on both ends of the floor–he’s averaging 26.5 over his three games and his +/- 7.3 leads all active players remaining in the playoffs. Bam Adebayo is averaging a double-double and Gabe Vincent has been tremendous on the defensive end with a +/- 7.0 during these playoffs.
New York Knicks
The Knicks have their backs to the wall in a must-win situation and their three losses during this series were by a combined 34 points. New York barely beat Miami without Butler and they have a tall order in front of them to win tonight.
Jalen Brunson has been solid this series but has been hobbled by a sore ankle and has shot just 27% from downtown but still averaging a team-high 26.8 points. RJ Barrett has shot 42% from downtown but he’s posted a +/- 13.7 this series guarding Butler and that ain’t easy for anyone to do. Julius Randle has been less than 100% with a lingering ankle injury and is shooting 22% from beyond the arc in this series.
That's so TUFF! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/WWy8jicMCv
— NEW YORK KNICKS (@nyknicks) May 8, 2023
The Knicks have won the battle of the boards but their poor shooting and 13.5 turnovers per game have cost New York dearly against Miami.
Phil’s Best Bet: Miami Heat +4 -110 DraftKings
Miami has outplayed New York and my best bet is for Miami to cover the +4 point spread Wednesday.
New York doesn’t have an answer for Butler and that isn’t likely to change in Game 5. Butler has willed the Heat to three victories and he and his Miami teammates are going to want to end this series and rest their banged-up bodies.
Butler has grabbed most of the headlines but Adebayo, Vincent along with Max Strus and Caleb Martin have done the job on the defensive end and Vincent, Strus and Martin have all knocked down timely triples and the Knicks just don’t have an answer.
Finally, the Knicks are moving in the right direction but they have injury issues and a bench that’s been outscored by an average of 15 points per game. New York can’t counter this and while they might win the game they won’t cover the four-point spread.