With a potent combination of offensive firepower and pitching prowess, the Phillies have become a force to be reckoned with, striking fear into the hearts of their opponents. While this may spell out the matchup leaning one way over the other, we’re going to break down the player and team statistics that matter come game time.
Why the Mets could win
The case for the Mets leans on form rather than overall rankings and strength. This is reflected in their current record as a 19-20 that has currently come off a 1-2 series against the second seed in the National League East, the 23-12 Atlanta Braves.
Sampling data from the last 30 days, when factoring in every statistic for the position, Franscisco Lindor ranks 3rd among shortstops and Brandon Nimmo ranks 1st at left field. This becomes drastically diminished when looking at YTD stats, where Nimmo drops to the 6th position and Lindor to the 15th. While these players are only a few of many, we use them as key men to show x-factors where the Mets stand out in contrast to their opponents.
Why the Phillies should win
The Phillies do not only boast a strong overall record of 28-13 as well as strong players, but they also hold a 9-2 game trend, with 4 of these games being won with 5 points or more.
Pete Alonso shines as one the brightest on the Mets, as he is sitting as the 12th most valuable player at first base when we factor in every standard stat such as batting averages, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, general averages and more. Unfortunately, this is beat out by our 2nd ranked first baseman, Bryce Harper who beats out Alonso in every statistical metric, with the only one they tie in being runs.
The pitching gives the Phillies another strong edge, with Ranger Suarez ranking 2nd among all qualified players and is on a 7-0 run as a starter. In addition, the rate of hits per bat against him is only 16.8%. Zack Wheeler is not equally, but almost as impressive with the 12th overall rank and a 19% rate of hits per bat.
Among the most played pitchers for the Phillies, Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm, the rate of hits per bat does not exceed 20% for any of them. Jorge Lopez, the Mets most played pitcher, sits at 22.1% over the course of the year. This spells as a mismatch not only from the prior skill position we mentioned but in the pitching department as well.
What do we predict?
Simply put, this game is likely to be a difficult one for the Mets. In the categories they excel, the Phillies are just straight up better and where the Mets are weak, the Phillies are extraordinarily strong. While this is expected with the difference in record, the differences are so glaringly obvious that it’s hard to see a way where the Mets could ever pull through barring a massive statistical anomaly occurring.
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