The clubs split their previous two-game Subway series earlier this year at Citi Field, and now it’s the Mets’ turn to jump on the six train for this series with the Yankees.
The Mets are a -130 favorite (DraftKings NJ) with an 8.5 total (-105, FanDuel NJ). The first pitch is set for 7:05 pm, with the game being televised nationally from Yankee Stadium on TBS.
Mets Fourth in National League East
The Metropolitans have been abysmal, and if the regular season were to end today, the Mets would miss the playoffs. They are 18.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East standings and seven games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second NL Wild Card.
The Mets’ bats have been embarrassing for them. This lineup consisting of All-Stars like Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso has scored the 10th fewest runs per game in the National League. That’s an odd number for a team ranked 5th in home runs and 13th in strikeouts while stranding the fourth fewest runners in baseball.
Justin Verlander (4-5, 3.70) is expected to make the start Tuesday against the Yankees. He got off to a slow start to his season, but over his last five games, he has surrendered six earned runs over 31 frames on the bump. Verlander has an away xFIP nearly a full run higher than his ERA but has been victorious in his last four starts in the Bronx.
Yankees Last in American League East
The Yankees aren’t playing any better baseball than the Mets are. The Bronx Bombers are 8.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East, but only two games separate the Yankees from the Houston Astros in the AL Wild Card table.
Losing Aaron Judge the first week of June due to an injury to his big toe is the main culprit for the Yankees’ struggles. New York is 13th among their AL peers in team batting average, which explains why the Yankees have scored the 9th most runs in the American League. The Bombers also strand the fewest runners in baseball but 9th in RBI, and that won’t win many games.
Domingo German (5-6, 4.52) has a complete-game no-hitter to his credit and a 10-game suspension for doctoring baseballs. German has yielded 16 earned runs over his previous 28.2 innings toeing the slab. German has been solid this season at Yankee Stadium, with an xFIP nearly 1.5 runs lower than his home ERA of 4.98.
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Best Bet: Yankees +116 (FanDuel)
The Yankees are playing better baseball than the Mets are, and my best bet is for the Yankees to win this game +116 at FanDuel.
German has been an enigma this season. He’s coughed up as many as nine earned runs during one start and has thrown a perfect game. He’s posted pedestrian numbers this season, but his xFIP is nearly 1.5 runs lower than his ERA, and he should be primed for this matchup at home against the hapless New York Mets.
The Mets bats have been silent throughout much of the season. The Metropolitans have scored 19 runs over their past five, lost three of those five, and we should expect this trend to continue Tuesday night against German and the boys in pinstripes.
Verlander looks more like a three-time Cy Young Award winner these days than the pitcher who began the season. He’s carved up some good hitting teams over the past five games, but he’s not pitching past the 6th inning against the red-hot Bombers Tuesday night.
Finally, German has been exceptional at home, and I believe this trend will continue Tuesday. The Mets’ bats are slumping, and German has enjoyed nearly five runs of support over his last five starts. Look for the Yankees bats to score enough to give German and the Yankees a huge win Tuesday. Grab the Yankees +116 at FanDuel.
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