The Celtics are opening up as -7 home favorites, with a 203 point total, as they battle it out with the Heat for the chance to take on the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, which are set to kick off on Thursday, June 1.
Miami Three Game Losing Streak
Miami had a strong start to the series, winning the first three games, but they missed out on two chances to win the series at home.
In the last few games, Miami has outshot Boston from downtown and done well on the offensive glass. However, they have been struggling with turnovers and this will pose a challenge for them in Monday night’s game.
There are some injury concerns for Miami, with Kevin Love and Gabe Vincent both listed as questionable.
Regardless of what happens in Game 7, my biggest vindication from this (chaotic!!!) Heat playoff run is that Caleb Martin is a winning basketball player.
Miami would be in a considerably worse spot without him.@hothothoops #HEATCulture pic.twitter.com/2PqaN5z5SG
— Matt Hanifan (@mph_824_) May 28, 2023
Jimmy Butler has been Miami’s top scorer and will need to continue his strong performance against Jayson Tatum.
Gabe Vincent has been a key player for Miami but suffered an ankle injury and struggled in Game 6. Bam Adebayo has been Miami’s best player overall but has had some turnover issues in this series.
Boston Comes Roaring Back
The Boston Celtics are attempting to write history as the only NBA team to win a series down 0-3, after playing on the road and facing elimination.
Although statistically they haven’t outperformed Miami in the last three games, they have managed to average 23 assists, secure more defensive rebounds, block more shots and steal more possessions than the Heat, which has kept Boston in the series.
Malcolm Brogdon missed Game 6 due to a forearm injury and it’s unclear if he’ll be able to play on Monday.
Derrick White’s tip-in at the buzzer sends our series back to Boston for Game 7. pic.twitter.com/rpx4ihVkQk
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) May 28, 2023
Jayson Tatum has had some ups and downs with his shooting, but he’s still averaging an impressive 27.2 points per game along with 10 rebounds and eight assists, although he also has the team’s highest number of turnovers at 4.2.
Jaylen Brown is contributing 17 points per game and five rebounds, but he’s struggled when guarding Butler with a -2.8 +/-.
Meanwhile, Marcus Smart has been shooting well both inside and outside the arc, while White is contributing an average of 13.7 points with a team-leading 3.2 +/-.
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Best Bet: Miami Over 203 -110
I’m going with Miami Over 203 -110 at FanDuel for this game. Although I think Boston will win, the juice of -300 or more is too high for my risk tolerance and money management system.
The Over has been 3-3 during this series, with Games 1-3 going over the bookmaker totals of 212-214.5, while the last three games went under the totals ending between 209-216 points.
I believe that Game 7 will be played at a faster pace than the previous three contests since Miami won in a faster paced environment and probably the only way Miami can win. Boston will chew Miami up in the half-court sets, and I expect the Celtics to shoot the three as often as they can and hit more triples than they have during this series.
Miami will pick up the pace and look to score off turnovers and transition to make up for the slower pace and less points in the past three games, because that is how the Heat win games.
Both teams are shooting below their season averages from the charity stripe, and there should be some positive regression for both sides and several FT attempts taken in this contest.
All in all, 203 points is too low for this contest, and my best bet is Miami Over 203 -110 (FanDuel).
