Alvarez’s recent five-game hitting streak has been the main reason for his rising odds. In 66 games, he is batting .238 with 17 home runs and 35 RBIs. He is also second among all NL rookie catchers in defensive Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and has cracked the second most home runs amongst the National League rookie class.
Alvarez is one of the best young defensive catchers in the game, and with his bat starting to catch up to his defense, the public has begun to notice and is starting to believe Alvarez has a chance to win this award.
The rookie catcher just had a five-game hitting streak snapped on the last day of play before the All-Star break. Included in the five-game hitting streak were three jacks and six RBI, and the promise of more to come allowed Alvarez to find the fourth spot on the bookmakers’ board.
Still, the Mets aren’t playing good baseball right now and haven’t all season. That has nothing to do with Alvarez–the young Mets catcher has been dynamite behind the dish and with his stick, but New York is fourth in the National League East and would miss the playoffs if the regular season were to end today.
Here are some other players who are also in the mix for the National League Rookie of the Year award:
- Corbin Carroll (Arizona Diamondbacks): Carroll is -300 at DraftKings to win the award and has been the frontrunner all season.
- Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds): De La Cruz is +280 at FanDuel to win the award and made national news this weekend by swiping three bases from a single at bat.
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): The Reds shortstop is +4000 at BetMGM and has the second-highest WAR amongst his National League counterparts.
Is Francisco Alvarez a Good Bet to Win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year Award?
No, Francisco Alvarez isn’t a good bet to win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year Award.
Alvarez is a 21-year-old rookie catcher playing in New York City and has excelled at baseball’s most difficult position for a really bad Mets team. He’s thrown out eight runners and has had to manage a pitching staff who haven’t been very good. That’s difficult to do for any player but for a rookie, it’s awesome, but that doesn’t help him win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year Award.
The Mets rookie has done big things with his stick as well, and the Mets would be in worse shape without his bat in the lineup. His numbers are strong but would be better if not for the fact the New York bats have struggled.
Alvarez could see a spike in his odds if the Mets are able to turn things around offensively, and excelling in New York certainly doesn’t hurt his chances. Still, he plays the easiest position to get hurt at, and he has three players ahead of him who are more likely to win.
DraftKings Rookie of the Year Award Markets to Consider
National League Rookie of the Year 2023 – Corbin Carroll (-300) vs Any Other Player (+250)
Carroll has been the frontrunner for the award the entire season. Despite De La Cruz’s historic weekend against Milwaukee, Carroll’s odds of winning haven’t changed at all and probably won’t, unless the Diamondbacks’ rookie slugger gets injured.
Carroll has a history of shoulder injuries due to his one-handed swing. This injury cost him a couple of games in early June, and this past week Carroll left the lineup after inflaming this shoulder against Pittsburgh. He did return to the lineup the next day, but if he gets injured again, the Diamondbacks won’t take any risks with their young slugger and will put him on the IL until he heals.
This injury flareup is worrisome, and the best bet for the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year is to take “Any Other Player” for +250 at DraftKings NJ.
The reasoning is simple; if Carroll spends any amount of time on the IL, and it could easily happen, he will likely lose the award to De La Cruz, McClain, or maybe even Alvarez. You will win $250 for a $100 bet instead of laying -300 juice and winding up with nothing. Play anyone other than Carroll +250 at DraftKings.
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