The Mets are hoping to make a run at the playoffs this season, but they have some work to do in order to accomplish this goal. Let’s take a closer look at where the Mets are and what we can most likely expect at the season’s end.
Mets mediocre offense
The Mets offense has been disappointing this season, which is currently ranked 8th in the National League in runs scored. Pete Alonso is having another All-Star-caliber season with an MLB-leading 20 home runs. Brandon Nimmo leads New York in batting average and is the Mets WAR leader.
- Jeff McNeil is second in hits and batting average and has played in all 59 games
- Francisco Lindor leads the team in strikeouts but is second in home runs and third in WAR with the lowest batting average of his career
- Starling Marte leads the team with 17 stolen bases
- Daniel Vogelbach is batting .216 over 135 plate appearances
- Brett Baty is hitting .227 with four bombs and 15 RBI over 135 plate appearances
CANHA HAVE ANOTHER?!? pic.twitter.com/OMz4p09Gxb
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 1, 2023
Worst pitching staff in the National League
The starting rotation is 14th in WAR and overall is the worst thus far in the National League. Off-season acquisition Justin Verlander has made six starts due to injuries and Kodai Senga and Max Scherzer lead the rotation with four quality starts.
- Scherzer is tied for second in wins while leading the rotation in ERA but his xFIP is a full run higher
- Senga is tied with Scherzer in second in wins and leads New York starters in WAR
- Verlander has the lowest strikeout per nine innings of his Hall of Fame-worthy career
- Starter Joey Lucchesi was ineffective and demoted to AAA
- David Peterson is 1-6 while serving up 1.85 home runs per nine frames pitched
- Tyler McGill leads the Mets with five victories but has a 1.60 WHIP
The bullpen hasn’t been that much better, ranking 10th in team ERA and last in the National League in WAR. Closer Edwin Diaz was injured during the World Baseball Classic and won’t pitch this season. Closer David Roberston leads the Mets with 10 saves and Brooks Raley has team highs in holds (13) and blown saves (2).
D-Rob's fired up 🔥 pic.twitter.com/1FwVLZPmTg
— New York Mets (@Mets) June 3, 2023
New York Mets 2023 outlook
The New York Mets are currently -175 to reach the playoffs and +425 to win the National League East. Despite being 4.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the East and one game back in the National League Wild Card race, the Mets are still in the hunt for a pennant.
However, it would take a major losing skid and extended injuries to their starting rotation or to top hitters like Alonzo, McNeill, and/or Lindor for them to miss out on the MLB postseason play.
The Mets starting rotation has underperformed this season, but the addition of Scherzer and Verlander should have given them a much-needed boost. Unfortunately, they have also underperformed and their xFIP is higher than their respective ERA, which isn’t a good sign.
While Senga has been sharp, Peterson hasn’t, and the rest of the staff has been mediocre. The rotation has given up the most walks and the fourth-most home runs per nine innings in the National League, yet the Mets are still in the playoff picture.
The loss of Diaz has hurt the Mets, but the bullpen’s 3.29 walks and 1.28 home runs per nine innings pitched have also been a problem. Robertson has been consistent with only one blown save, but relievers Drew Smith and Adam Ottavino have been inconsistent, and Raley serves up too many home runs.
It will be up to Mets Manager Buck Showalter to find a way to turn things around, or the team could miss the playoffs. Despite the struggling pitching staff, the Mets have too many solid offensive players to not bounce back.
New York will likely end the season at or near the top in runs scored and home runs hit. If Scherzer and Verlander can get hot, a mediocre Mets’ offense will still score enough to win a majority of their games.
When the bats start to turn around, as they inevitably will, and some better outings from the bullpen, the Mets could win the East.