March Madness descends on NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, Saturday evening for the annual rite of passage known as the NCAA Tournament Final Four.
The action begins at 6:09 pm when the Florida Atlantic Owls meet the San Diego State Aztecs, followed by the Miami Hurricanes taking on the UConn Huskies at 8:49 pm.
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The Final Four betting markets offer a wide variety to choose from, and Phil has two plays he really likes for Saturday.
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. San Diego State Aztecs
No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic Owls are +2 underdogs with a 132-point total when they meet No. 5 seed San Diego State Aztecs at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game time is 6:09 pm, and the game is televised on CBS.
Important factors that will have an impact on the final result includes;
- Florida Atlantic went on a 20-game winning streak earlier this year and is riding an 11-game winning streak. San Diego State is looking to extend an eight-game winning streak, its longest winning run of the season.
- Florida Atlantic was 5-1 against Quad 1 teams and 4-2 against Quad 2 squads this season. San Diego State was 7-5 vs. Quad 1 teams and 8-1 against Quad 2 schools.
- Florida Atlantic ranks 37th in scoring but allows the 45th most points per game. San Diego State scored the 183rd most points per game but allowed the 25th fewest points in D1 hoops.
- Florida Atlantic is the better shooting team from inside and outside the arc, but San Diego State is one of the best free-throw shooting sides in the country.
- Florida Atlantic relies on the triple for 37.1% of its points, while San Diego State accounts for 52.4% inside the arc.
Phil’s Best Bet: San Diego State ML -130 Caesars
Florida Atlantic has had a great run, but my best bet is for San Diego State to win this game.
The -130 is more than I would like to pay, and if you can find a better price from our list of New Jersey sportsbooks, you should take the better price.
Laying the -2 would be the best play from a vigorish standpoint, but this will be highly physical, with a likelihood of overtime. The Owls rely on the triple and meet an Aztec defense ranked 2nd in the nation in 3-point defense. San Diego State has the edge in height, experience, rebounding, and free-throw percentage and should win.
Miami Hurricanes vs. UConn Huskies
No. 5 seed Miami Hurricanes are +5.5 underdogs with a 149.5 total when they meet No. 4 UConn Huskies. Tip-off is set for 8:49 pm, and CBS will air the game.
Important factors that will have an impact on the final result includes;
- Both teams are riding four-game winning streaks entering this Final Four matchup. The Hurricanes’ longest winning run was nine games–UConn opened their season with a 14-game winning run, their longest hot streak.
- Miami was 8-5 against Quad 1 teams and 7-0 against Quad 2 squads this season, whereas UConn went 10-6 against Quad 1 teams and 7-1 against Quad 2 schools.
- Miami ranked 21st in points but yielded the 236th most points per game. UConn scored the 28th most points per game but allowed the 35th fewest points in the college game.
- Miami is the better all-around shooting team, but UConn is the better offensive rebounding side with the more efficient offense.
- Miami looks to score inside and is 22nd in effective field goal percentage. UConn relies on the triple for 34.8% of its points and is 59th in three-point shooting percentage.
Phil’s Best Bet: UConn -5.5 -110 Unibet
Miami has had a great run, but UConn is not only going to end the Hurricanes’ run but cover the -5.5.
UConn is playing offense at another level, and the Hurricanes’ shaky defense will have difficulty keeping the inside game of Adama Sanogo and the outside marksmanship of Jordan Hawkins from scoring. Miami can stuff a stat sheet offensively, but the Huskies bear down on the defensive end of the floor, and they should get enough stops to outscore the Hurricanes and cover the -5.5.
