The Jets are coming off a 30-28 home victory over the Washington Commanders and have lost three of their past five tilts. Meanwhile, Cleveland has won three straight, and a win over New York would assure them an AFC Wild Card.
Please join me as I break down the NFL odds with a free pick for Thursday’s Jets vs. Browns Thursday Night Football matchup on December 28.
Jets vs. Browns Best Bets
Over 34.5 (-110) at Caesars
34.5 is a low total, and I am well aware of the New York Jets’ scoring woes and that Trevor Siemien will get the nod at quarterback. I’m also well aware that New York and Cleveland allow the 12th and 13th fewest points per game this season, and I understand that all signs point to a low-scoring game.
That being said, New York has allowed 30+ in three of their six away games. Yes, those poor defensive performances were to Dallas, Buffalo, and Miami, but the Browns have scored 20+ five times at home this season and twice in the last three games with Joe Flacco under center.
Finally, both defenses are stout, but they will allow points. Flacco has been good, but he’s also thrown seven interceptions over his last four. Siemien hasn’t played much, but he’s also thrown three picks over his last two. Look for some turnovers and offenses, taking advantage of some short fields, and as a result, this matchup ends Over 34.5 (-110) at Caesars New Jersey.
Joe Flacco Over 1.5 TD passes (+168) at FanDuel
Flacco has four consecutive multiple-scoring strike games and has a tasty matchup with a Jets defense, allowing the second-fewest passing TDs (1.1) per game this season but 1.5 TD passes per away game this season.
The Jets’ secondary has been gashed by some terrific quarterbacks this season. Still, Flacco has found success throwing the football downfield, and being favored by -7.5 points likely means Cleveland and Flacco will find the endzone, and these touchdowns will come via the air.
Finally, the Browns’ much-heralded rushing attack has taken a backseat to the gunslinging Flacco. Cleveland has scored 13 TDs over the past four contests, and Flacco’s arm has accounted for seven of those TDs. The Jets have allowed four passing TDs over their last four, but I expect the red-hot Flacco to be slinging on Thursday and throwing for two TD passes. The FanDuel New Jersey bet is the way to go.
